Archive for the “Futures” category

The future is bad for you, and always has been

by Stefan Czerniawski on 31 December 2013

It is always the next technology which is going to precipitate social collapse. Yet somehow the social collapse has never quite happened (though maybe next time…). More than that, last year’s (or last century’s) threat to society becomes this year’s (…)

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History, weak

by Stefan Czerniawski on 8 November 2013

It’s history week at the Cabinet Office, a series of internal events designed to remind the current generation of policy makers both that there is always something to learn from history and that their work will become history in its (…)

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When does the supermarket close?

by Stefan Czerniawski on 19 September 2013

Supermarkets are not about to start closing their doors. Parliamentary democracy is not about to collapse or even radically mutate. But the web is only twenty years old. The disruption is just beginning.

Public and strategic

by Stefan Czerniawski on 16 July 2013

Most of the time, the hottest place in the solar system is the core of the sun. Some of the time, the hottest place in the solar system is tucked away in an obscure building on an anonymous industrial estate (…)

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This was the unknowable future once

by Stefan Czerniawski on 12 July 2013

Looking for something else, I have just stumbled across some notes I took from a book I was reading almost exactly ten years ago (and which had been published that year). Normally I try hard to give proper attribution to (…)

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Aphorism 83

by Stefan Czerniawski on 17 May 2013

The most prominent predictors of the future tend to be the most wrong Geoff Mulgan

Imagining the future

by Stefan Czerniawski on 22 March 2013

There is a lot of pseudo-scientific claptrap published about the future. There are people who carefully extrapolate trends, construct complex scenarios, weight many outcomes, some of whom necessarily get some things right through sheer chance, but many of whom appear (…)

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Marginal changes and macro impacts

by Stefan Czerniawski on 11 March 2013

Fifteen years ago, I predicted the demise of the supermarket. Four years ago, I noted that that hadn’t turned out to be the greatest of predictions: I wasn’t quite daft enough to think that everybody was going to do their (…)

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Infrastructure, superstructure and not enough sockets

by Stefan Czerniawski on 3 July 2012

It can be hard to reverse bad decisions. It can be hard to recover from having failed to anticipate the future. It can be hard not having enough power sockets in hotel rooms. There is an old (but sadly discredited) (…)

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Aphorism 62

by Stefan Czerniawski on 8 February 2012

What looks from an adult perspective like radical technological change is just the background radiation of a young person’s life. Martin Belam